Portugal, and yields, and Iran - oh my! None of these are new stories.
Portugal is bigger than Greece - but we knew that. Moreover, we knew Portugal was in dire straits. We knew Germany was already hesitant to provide more assistance and would demand higher guarantees.
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A long long time ago, there was a lot of talk about alternative energy, and then the government got involved, and the talk subsided, but it was always there, and there were prominent VC's who touted it, and then we all shifted our attention to Europe - and now . . .
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It's all in the timing. I recently spoke to a client about the recent divergence between oil and the agricultural space. I'm not a chart specialist, but I do like to reference the charts for a quick view of history. In this case, the spread between oil and ag indices looks pretty stretched. .
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As the world's growth is being recognized for what it is, namely anemic if not outright negative, oil and the industrial commodities have come off a good 30+%.
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While the world looks at the euro dying a surprisingly slow death, I once again have to shift readers' focus.
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With an economic slowdown starting to get priced in, and deflationary pressures increasing, energy is lower.
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Approaching new highs in almost every currency. Euro can sustain any bids, and I'm not even sure who's bidding other than the Chinese. Why are the Chinese bidding? No clue; maybe they like losing money. Regardless, gold and even more importantly for me, the gold miners, are rising today.
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What does it tell us when oil stays level but oil related companies go up? For starters, it tells us that the implementation vehicle we utilized (
XES) was the right choice.
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60 million barrels sure sounds like a lot, so thank you world governments for releasing that into the system and alleviating consumers' burdens.
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Earlier this week, Dennis Gartman had a note out on the technicalities behind the failed OPEC meeting, where the votes were roughly split between countries willing and unwilling to boost production.
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Goldman came out with a note today encouraging clients to dumb their oil holdings and lo and behold, oil is down 4% - correlation, not necessarily causation, I know, but still.
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Japan was hit with another earthquake. It happens. I guess it more likely to happen in certain places than others, but such is life. They'll rebuild, they'll have more earthquakes. Is there any new story there? Not for me.
The real story is in energy and food.
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The Japanese stock market is hitting circuit breakers with a 5% drop as Japanese officials scramble to inject liquidity into the system.
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Tags: China, currency trading, energy, Euro, Middle East, oil, USD, Yuan
Commodities/Futures, Currency, Politics | | 
March 4, 2011 12:58 pm | 
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