» 2008 Forecasts revisited

2008 Forecasts revisited

Via New York Magazine, comes this amusing collection of bad forecasts
for the 2008 year:

• Jon Birger, senior writer, Fortune Investors Guide 2008
Smart investors should buy [Merrill Lynch] stock before everyone
else comes to their senses.”
Merrill’s shares plummeted 77 percent.

• Elaine Garzarelli, president of Garzarelli Capital, Business
Week’s Investment Outlook 2008
Buy some of the most beaten-down stocks, including those of giant
financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and
Merrill Lynch.
As of January 1, none of these firms will still exist.

• Sarah Ketterer, CEO of Causeway Capital Management, Fortune
Investors Guide 2008
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been pummeled. Our stress-test
analysis indicates those stocks are at bargain basement prices.”
Fannie and Freddie had lost 90 percent of their value.

• Jon Birger, senior writer, in Fortune Investors Guide 2008
Our bet is that in a stormy market investors will gravitate
toward, GE, the ultimate blue chip.
GE’s stock price tumbled 55%, and it’s on the verge of losing its
triple-A credit rating.

• Archie MacAllaster, chairman of MacAllaster Pitfield MacKay in
Barron’s 2008 Roundtable
“Bank of America will [not cut its dividend], I think they’ll
raise it this year. My target price for the stock is $55.”
BofA share price now hovers around $14, and it has slashed its
dividend in half.

• James J. Cramer, “Future of Business” New York Magazine
“Goldman Sachs… finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a
prediction — an inevitability.”
Goldman Sachs’ share price was $78, and the firm announced its
first quarterly loss — $2.2 billion.

Yes, the 2008 investment guides were HILARIOUS — but what makes you
think the 2009 guides will be any different.

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