From the Fed: Future Recession Risks
Future Recession Risks
by Travis J. Berge and Oscar Jorda
An unstable economic environment has rekindled talk of a double-dip recession. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index provides data for predicting the probability of a recession but is limited by the weight assigned to its indicators and the varying efficacy of those indicators over different time horizons. Statistical experiments with LEI data can mitigate these limitations and suggest that a recessionary relapse is a significant possibility sometime in the next two years.
For the full paper, click here.
There’s nothing more to say. The Fed is starting to recognize that risks remain to the downside. It supports the view that rates will be kept low for the foreseeable future.
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Academic, Fixed Income/Bonds | Yaron Sadan | 
August 9, 2010 1:03 pm
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