That sinking feeling

Fri, 18 May 2012 15:41:53 +0000

In an economy based on debt and financial shenanigans, of course the market can't go up without the leadership from the poster-children, namely the financials themselves.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Opportunity on the horizon

Fri, 18 May 2012 15:24:12 +0000

While the US is looking to the Facebook (FB) IPO as the biggest story of the day, it's nice to know that the rest of the world recognizes it as just another hyped IPO with no real impact for our daily lives. On the other hand, JPM blowing up DOES matter. Greece blowing up DOES matter.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Early can hurt

Wed, 16 May 2012 20:52:30 +0000

I was early on the euro - initially going short in November 2009. Got out with a nice gain and now staying away, mostly because the vehicles to implement such a volatile trade a difficult to hold. I was early on natural gas - originally going long when it was around here.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Diversify your Diversification

Tue, 15 May 2012 18:55:45 +0000

If you're still investing in your dad's portfolio (60/40), you're going to be in trouble.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Losing Money Isn’t a Crime

Tue, 15 May 2012 14:57:01 +0000

Jonathan Macey writes in today’s Wall Street Journal – an essay whose title, “Losing Money Isn’t a Crime,” is spot-on (h.t.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

JPM and Rating Agencies

Fri, 11 May 2012 23:20:01 +0000

The Whale (Bruno Iksil) was outed weeks ago, and of course, the market has a way of smelling large, levered, market-breaking trades and moving against them (anyone around for LTCM?). Actually, if anything, this might be the time to get into Bruno's trade as he gets squeezed out.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Good enough for Slim, but not for you?

Tue, 08 May 2012 17:36:03 +0000

The Financial Times reports that Carlos Slim is increasing his stake in Dutch telecom KPN.

The America Movil [Carlos Slim] offer represents a premium of more than 23 per cent over KPN’s share price as of Monday. From here.

Here's why I bring this up: The world's richest man is paying a 23% premium to purchase/increase his stake in a European telecom, the worst performing sector in a badly performing market, in a hazardous region.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

“Where is everybody?”

Mon, 07 May 2012 19:30:20 +0000

Josh Brown, famous for his Reformed Broker blog and new book, Backstage Wall Street has a response to the NY Times article on the disappearing trading volume.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Testing the Magic Formula

Mon, 07 May 2012 18:28:00 +0000

I love Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula. The pursuit of perfection is really the pursuit of simplicity (paraphrasing someone much smarter than I), and so, a two-factor value model that beats everyone and everything is beauty incarnate.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Hugh Hendry has been making the rounds

Wed, 02 May 2012 16:59:21 +0000

I really like Hugh Hendry. For starters, he brings a historical context that is deep and broad. Then, he's OK with putting himself out there by making bold contrarian calls. Lastly, he doesn't pander to investors or the media.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Investing and Faith

Yaron Sadan — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 13:42:31 +0000

Contrary to popular opinion, investors need to have faith. Specifically, they need to have faith that the market has an organizing logic, and then they need to have faith that they can figure out what that logic is.

It doesn’t matter whether you are a value or growth investor, technician or fundamental analyst, random walk theorist or statistician, or anything else. When you invest you are a believer.

Did you hear the one …

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 16:43:38 +0000

A Frenchman, a German, and a Spaniard walk into a conference room... What happens then would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

The devaluation of everything

Mon, 23 Apr 2012 15:04:06 +0000

The Economist has a nice summary of panflation:

Inflation of all kinds devalues everything it infects. It obscures information and so distorts behaviour.

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China, China, China

Fri, 13 Apr 2012 04:05:00 +0000

When everyone was expecting outsized growth numbers, they were also muttering under their breath that the numbers can't be trusted.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Do You Still Want That?

Fri, 13 Apr 2012 03:50:10 +0000

A funny thing happens to investors the world over: One day they wake up and something looks off. Sure, you know exactly why you added each individual position,you know your analysis was perfect, you are sure you caught it just right, etc.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription