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<channel>
	<title>The Hard Trade</title>
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	<link>http://thehardtrade.com</link>
	<description>"The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity." -- Yeats</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:56:17 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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			<item>
		<title>Uncertainty and risk</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5902</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5902#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:56:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Academic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fat tails]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[global warming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[uncertainty]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5902</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How do we assign probabilities and expected returns to fat tail events? Often, when people can't estimate the impact of certain events, the tendency is to guess wish it away, ignore it, or guess it doesn't exist.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[How do we assign probabilities and expected returns to fat tail events? Often, when people can't estimate the impact of certain events, the tendency is to guess wish it away, ignore it, or guess it doesn't exist.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>News, News, News &#8211; Ignore it all</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5899</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5899#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:25:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Montier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[treasuries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5899</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The story is in the Treasuries. Equities, currencies, commodities, real estate...they are all secondary to bonds.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The story is in the Treasuries. Equities, currencies, commodities, real estate...they are all secondary to bonds.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Deadly discount rate</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5896</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5896#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 04:54:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy/Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dividend discount model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dividends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[duration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[equity duration]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sensitivity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stocks]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5896</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We're reading more and more about research being done in low to negative real interest rate environments.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[We're reading more and more about research being done in low to negative real interest rate environments.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Downsize to save Detroit?</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5894</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5894#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 04:32:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[detroit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[downsizing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[immigration policy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5894</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We've spoken of this option often in our rants - there is an oversupply of housing, oftentimes concentrated in specific areas, that needs to be absorbed. Only 2 options: increase demand or decrease supply.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[We've spoken of this option often in our rants - there is an oversupply of housing, oftentimes concentrated in specific areas, that needs to be absorbed. Only 2 options: increase demand or decrease supply.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Citi, banks, stress tests &#8211; I&#8217;m confused</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5891</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5891#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:39:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Company News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barney Frank]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[C]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[citi]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stress test]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5891</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So rumors are all over the place today and I'm confused. Citibank gained on news that the government is selling its stake.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[So rumors are all over the place today and I'm confused. Citibank gained on news that the government is selling its stake.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Cash on the sidelines? Not as much as before.</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5889</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5889#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:23:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy/Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash reserves]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money market funds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money on sidelines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mutual funds]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5889</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Equity mutual funds have one of the lowest cash reserve levels since the recent rally began and money markets have less cash than a year ago.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Equity mutual funds have one of the lowest cash reserve levels since the recent rally began and money markets have less cash than a year ago.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>India Food Inflation</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5886</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5886#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Mar 2010 22:15:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy/Allocation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5886</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It's interesting what gets picked up in the mainstream news and niche publications. Often, stories like the government selling its Citi stake spread like wildfire and drive the stock up.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[It's interesting what gets picked up in the mainstream news and niche publications. Often, stories like the government selling its Citi stake spread like wildfire and drive the stock up.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Silver Lining to the Debt Crisis</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5883</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5883#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Mar 2010 17:39:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy/Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5883</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here's the by line from the article in Barron's: "Could a Japanese debt crisis help spur a rally? Perhaps, if it fuels the yen carry trade."
<blockquote>But rather than precipitating a panic, a decline in the overvalued yen would serve as a tonic in two ways.

The most obvious would be to give a lift to Japanese exporters, which have been hampered by the yen's strength, not only against the dollar but even more so against other currencies.</blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Here's the by line from the article in Barron's: "Could a Japanese debt crisis help spur a rally? Perhaps, if it fuels the yen carry trade."
<blockquote>But rather than precipitating a panic, a decline in the overvalued yen would serve as a tonic in two ways.

The most obvious would be to give a lift to Japanese exporters, which have been hampered by the yen's strength, not only against the dollar but even more so against other currencies.</blockquote><a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The problem of quiet</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5880</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5880#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Mar 2010 18:05:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy/Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fat pitch investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wait]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5880</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Do you feel the tension in the air? Most of the people I've been speaking to the past few days are feeling more bored than tense. With the VIX hovering near 17, and markets creeping up despite everyone, there seems to be a sense of boredom making its rounds.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Do you feel the tension in the air? Most of the people I've been speaking to the past few days are feeling more bored than tense. With the VIX hovering near 17, and markets creeping up despite everyone, there seems to be a sense of boredom making its rounds.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>VIX has just been hanging out and declining</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5876</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5876#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Mar 2010 18:46:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy/Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vix]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vxx]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5876</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From our perspective, the VIX is reflecting a surprising complacency.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[From our perspective, the VIX is reflecting a surprising complacency.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Paradox of Thrift, meet Paradox of Toil</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5873</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5873#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Mar 2010 20:53:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Academic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[eggertson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[paradox of thrift]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[paradox of toil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[zero-bound interest rates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5873</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Keynes has been rediscovered in the past 2 years - not that he was ever lost, nor ever ignored - with Krugman, Reich, the Obama spend-to-save-jobs team, and the myriad pundits exploiting his theories to pass various spend-to-save policies.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Keynes has been rediscovered in the past 2 years - not that he was ever lost, nor ever ignored - with Krugman, Reich, the Obama spend-to-save-jobs team, and the myriad pundits exploiting his theories to pass various spend-to-save policies.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Healthcare &#8211; This is important!!</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5868</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5868#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Mar 2010 18:16:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cutting 21%]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[healthcare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[medicare reimbursements]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5868</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I didn't write any posting yesterday - but I have a good reason.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[I didn't write any posting yesterday - but I have a good reason.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Chinese labor shortages?</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5864</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5864#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Feb 2010 15:49:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wage pressure]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5864</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday's article in the FT highlight an interesting point: what happens when Chinese labor is no longer cheap? The article highlighted that with a new manufacturing cycle starting, many firms are having difficulty finding the workers necessary to fill large orders.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Yesterday's article in the FT highlight an interesting point: what happens when Chinese labor is no longer cheap? The article highlighted that with a new manufacturing cycle starting, many firms are having difficulty finding the workers necessary to fill large orders.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Connecting the dots 2-25-2010</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5861</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5861#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Feb 2010 17:12:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodities/Futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Connect The Dots]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy/Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[California]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[healthcare]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[imf gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Municipals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[vudu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wmt]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5861</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Or at least trying to keep track of everything...

I want to first give you an insight into what I've been reading this morning, then we'll see where it leads us.

As many of you know, I'm a believer that excess profits flow through to the real estate sector and have referred to Fred Harrison's book on the subject often (<a title="http://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bust-Prices-Banking-Depression/dp/0856832545/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&#38;s=books&#38;qid=1267115867&#38;sr=8-1" href="http://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bust-Prices-Banking-Depression/dp/0856832545/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&#38;s=books&#38;qid=1267115867&#38;sr=8-1" target="_blank">http://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bust-Prices-Banking-Depression/dp/0856832545/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&#38;s=books&#38;qid=1267115867&#38;sr=8-1</a> - it's a must read).]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Or at least trying to keep track of everything...

I want to first give you an insight into what I've been reading this morning, then we'll see where it leads us.

As many of you know, I'm a believer that excess profits flow through to the real estate sector and have referred to Fred Harrison's book on the subject often (<a title="http://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bust-Prices-Banking-Depression/dp/0856832545/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1267115867&amp;sr=8-1" href="http://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bust-Prices-Banking-Depression/dp/0856832545/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1267115867&amp;sr=8-1" target="_blank">http://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bust-Prices-Banking-Depression/dp/0856832545/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1267115867&amp;sr=8-1</a> - it's a must read).<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>SEC limits short sales</title>
		<link>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5857</link>
		<comments>http://thehardtrade.com/archives/5857#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2010 19:13:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[short sales limits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shorting]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thehardtrade.com/?p=5857</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Under-reported and under-reacted-to (is that even a term?), the SEC in a split vote decided to put limits on shorting.
<blockquote>SEC commissioners voted 3-to-2 to curb short sales of a stock after it falls 10% in one day, with the rule requiring short sellers to exceed the highest bid for the remainder of that trading day and the following in short sales of that security.

For the full article, click <a title="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-votes-3-2-for-alternative-uptick-rule-2010-02-24" href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-votes-3-2-for-alternative-uptick-rule-2010-02-24" target="_blank">here</a>.</blockquote>
For those interested in efficient markets, price discovery, market mechanisms, etc.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Under-reported and under-reacted-to (is that even a term?), the SEC in a split vote decided to put limits on shorting.
<blockquote>SEC commissioners voted 3-to-2 to curb short sales of a stock after it falls 10% in one day, with the rule requiring short sellers to exceed the highest bid for the remainder of that trading day and the following in short sales of that security.

For the full article, click <a title="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-votes-3-2-for-alternative-uptick-rule-2010-02-24" href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-votes-3-2-for-alternative-uptick-rule-2010-02-24" target="_blank">here</a>.</blockquote>
For those interested in efficient markets, price discovery, market mechanisms, etc.<a class='SumaPostContent' onfocus='if(this.blur)this.blur();' href='https://thehardtrade.com/?pagename=SumaSubscribe'>Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription</a>]]></content:encoded>
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