Yen

What happened to all those repatriation of yen will end the dollar stories I kept getting last week? Turns out that a natural disaster is no match for demographics in this case. It’s not to say that the yen can’t strengthen, but rather, to point out that news of the death of the dollar may be premature.

…and to take it a step further, if I had to guess which currency is in more trouble (yen or dollar)…well, readers know I’ve staked my claim.

As a sidenote, someone asked me whether I’m “hoping” the yen will go down. I put hoping in quotes because it’s a very specific term that I want to highlight. I do not “hope” the yen will go down and even though I will benefit from it, there is no judgment or or feeling of elation if it comes to pass. Instead, the appropriate word choice is “anticipate” or “expect”, in which case I can answer, “Yes, I anticipate that the yen will decline relative to the dollar and because of that I took a position to implement my expectation, not my hope.” It’s a subtle difference, but an important one, I think.

Relevant ETFs: FXY, YCS, DXJ, UUP

Last 5 posts by Yaron Sadan

• That sinking feeling - May 18th, 2012
• Opportunity on the horizon - May 18th, 2012
• Early can hurt - May 16th, 2012
• Diversify your Diversification - May 15th, 2012
• Losing Money Isn't a Crime - May 15th, 2012

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