Strategy/Allocation

Technically

Technically, I'm not a technician. The idea behind technical analysis is that historical price, time, and volume data has some predictive value, and at least from an empirical perspective I've seen some investors who are able to harness that data to gain an advantage.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: new high new low index, spx, technical analysis

Strategy/Allocation | | March 30, 2012 10:29 am | Comments Off

Bonds Yields and Stocks

Why is everyone so convinced the low bond yields will push investors into stocks? Earlier today, I read about an interview with Mobius, the famous emerging markets portfolio manager at Templeton, where he highlighted:

“People are now beginning to realize that they cannot be sitting on bonds that are paying one, two or even three percent, when inflation is running higher than that,” Mobius said, adding that investors would look increasingly at equities as an alternative. “If you look at equities of course, the yields are much, much greater than the bonds.”

The sentiment has lately been a favorite of pundits on CNBC and everywhere else.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: dividend yield, inflation, rates, y curve, yield

Fixed Income/Bonds, Strategy/Allocation | | March 22, 2012 4:36 pm | Comments Off

Sir, Yen Sir

The yen destruction is just beginning, and while it might have second thoughts, the eventual end is clear.

It's got a long way to go to get to where it was five years ago and even further if you look at the currency (not the ETF):

Regardless, everything priced in yen is shooting up.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: inflation, Japan, yen, yen hedge

Currency, Strategy/Allocation | | March 14, 2012 11:18 am | Comments Off

Volatility

It's just so low.

It makes no sense to me how it got so low, but it did.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: volatility, vxx

Strategy/Allocation | | 10:33 am | Comments Off

Q-Ratio Update

The Federal Reserve released its Z.1 Flow of Funds report earlier today. As the numbers get crunched across the street, here's one number that I always like to look at to gauge where we are and where we're heading.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: dshort, flow of funds, q-ratio, smiths & co., Tobin's q, Z.1

Strategy/Allocation | | March 8, 2012 1:41 pm | Comments Off

Hussman said it better

This week's Hussman letter says it better than me:

Last week, the estimated return/risk profile of the S&P 500 fell to the worst 2.5% of all observations in history on our measures. This is not a runaway bull market.

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Tags: Hussman

Strategy/Allocation | | March 6, 2012 4:03 pm | Comments Off

Now that we have some perspective…

This market isn't pretty . . . China admitting to a slowdown in growth is tantamount to the US admitting that we have bad fiscal policies - it never happens unless things are SO bad that they can't be hidden any more.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Strategy/Allocation | | 2:44 pm | Comments Off

Putting things in perspective

As readers are probably aware already, I'm no fan of the equity markets in general these days. Valuation metrics are OK, but are betting on continued, if not improving, profit margins, which I doubt.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: equity, volatility

Commodities/Futures, Strategy/Allocation | | 1:16 pm | Comments Off

Hugh Hendry Interview

Always interesting insight from Hugh Hendry: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703786004577221590093305080.html?mod=BOL_hps_mag#articleTabs_article%3D1. Big takeaways:

Possible hyperDEfaltion before hyperINflation.
Possibility for sub 2% yields on 10 year bonds.
Some Japanese companies may be in danger.
China can get much worse.
and directly quoting

In the next 12 months, we'll see further pathological swings in investor sentiment.

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Tags: Hendry

Strategy/Allocation | | February 22, 2012 8:32 pm | Comments Off

Demographics and Stock Markets

Long term trends are very difficult to time, but cannot be ignored as a backdrop for cyclical and secular moves.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: demographics, international bonds, P/E expansion

Fixed Income/Bonds, Strategy/Allocation | | February 16, 2012 1:01 pm | Comments Off

Calling all themes

Where have all the themes gone? Speaking to traders around the street, I get the sense that there's just beta and more beta. Don't get me wrong, there are big moves under the surface, but the moves are more about volatility than expressions of themes.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Strategy/Allocation | | February 10, 2012 3:55 pm | Comments Off

Portugal, and Yields, and Iran . . .

Portugal, and yields, and Iran - oh my! None of these are new stories. Portugal is bigger than Greece - but we knew that. Moreover, we knew Portugal was in dire straits. We knew Germany was already hesitant to provide more assistance and would demand higher guarantees.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: currency trading, energy, iran, oil, yield

Currency, Fixed Income/Bonds, Strategy/Allocation | | January 30, 2012 1:45 pm | Comments Off

All eyes should be on Iran

Last year I started writing about the divergent forces working on oil: global slowdown vs. geopolitical unrest. So far, geopolitical unrest has been winning.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: energy, geopolitical, iran, Straits of Hormuz

Strategy/Allocation | | January 23, 2012 12:17 pm | Comments Off

Quick note

If BAC and C can't get this market to rally . . .Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Tags: financial, sector performance

Strategy/Allocation | | January 19, 2012 10:10 am | Comments Off

Our monkey mind

TechCrunch reported earlier today about "a study by the British Psychological Society [that] found a link between stress levels and the number of times a person picks up their smartphone to check messages and mails. As an addict, I can completely agree with this finding.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Strategy/Allocation | | January 17, 2012 5:53 pm | Comments Off

Category: Strategy/Allocation