Where have all the themes gone? Speaking to traders around the street, I get the sense that there's just beta and more beta. Don't get me wrong, there are big moves under the surface, but the moves are more about volatility than expressions of themes.
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Portugal, and yields, and Iran - oh my! None of these are new stories.
Portugal is bigger than Greece - but we knew that. Moreover, we knew Portugal was in dire straits. We knew Germany was already hesitant to provide more assistance and would demand higher guarantees.
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Last year I started writing about the divergent forces working on oil: global slowdown vs. geopolitical unrest. So far, geopolitical unrest has been winning.
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TechCrunch reported earlier today about "a study by the British Psychological Society [that] found a link between stress levels and the number of times a person picks up their smartphone to check messages and mails. As an addict, I can completely agree with this finding.
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For months, we were following BAC as the barometer for all that was financial. BAC had it all: Countrywide waste, new consumer fees, brand name shorts, and brand name entrants (albeit into preferreds), and more. It was easy to see it become a single digit, and then watch in wonder as it broke down.
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Here's the issue: most fund managers are used to taking some time off in August, or at least in the July-August period at some point. This year, their plans were thwarted by what can only be described as PAIN. So Joe Manager didn't have his time off, and wasn't able to de-stress.
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Predictions for 2012 are rampant, so I'll stay away. Suffice it to say that I'm looking at the same themes as I was in 2011 - what asset classes, geographical regions, securities, etc.
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Laffer curve believers and non-believers can start looking at the G-7 for clues as to whether they are right. Of course, I'm sure both sides will be able to find reasons why the data proves their point.
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I'm sure a lot of managers would have wanted to include today in their 2011 performance - I know I would.
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I am bearish on treasuries long term, but in the short to medium term, I'm not sure investors will have many alternatives, especially as the euro denominated debt continues to pose currency, liquidity, and solvency risks. Then there is the issue of implementation.
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Asset allocation used to be easy. There were three main asset classes investors had to contend with: cash, bonds, and equities.
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I often look to the sciences and to the arts (literature, for example) to draw connections and try to apply thinking in one field to investing, most notably in discussing model development, I borrow heavily from earthquake and avalanche models.
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Strategy/Allocation | | 
February 10, 2012 3:55 pm | 
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