The Hunt for Yield

I am not immune to the hunt. Yield can help you wait out a lot of volatility, and is especially important in times of questionable returns and incredibly low rates on savings. Pundits have been talking up the dividend yields of some brand name US firms such as JNJ or PG.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Recording everything

The piece below from the Brookings Institute is pretty disturbing -- what happens when governments have access to everything? (h.t.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Netflix P/E chart

I'm testing some new charting software . . . Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

On Minyanville

I was recently asked to become a regular columnist for Minyanville.com. I will have a weekly column analyzing issues in asset allcoation, behavioral finance, and contrarian investing. The newsletter will continue to provide more timely analysis of geopolitics, in-depth analysis of specific strategies, and actionable investing ideas.

Finishing the week, finishing the quarter

And the news keeps rolling in . . . (in no particular order):

• German retail sales down. Interesting in light of the fact that US sales are up while incomes are down (yes, lower savings rate - AGAIN). What does it mean? Consumers will be tapped out faster without HELOCs.

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Relief rally?

A quick thought: what will happen after a debt ceiling deal is reached? Will the market breathe a sigh of relief and rally in celebration? Will the actual economic news of slowing GDP growth and weak housing and lackluster employment be a wall of worry to climb or finally priced in? Is the market alViewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Paralyzed by the unknown

As August 2nd looms, participants are holding off on making any major moves. You're a CEO and have to decide whether to make a major investment in the US to build a new plant; it's a 3 year project to build out.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

When the Tide Recedes

Warren Buffett famously remarked that when the tide recedes we get to see who has been swimming with not bathing suit.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Taxes – High or Low?

I don't like writing about taxes. For starters, high, low, and everything in between is always irrelevant, since anyone who pays any taxes always thinks his tax rate is too high. But Bruce Bartlett, an economic advisor to the White House, had an interesting article in the NY Times yesterday.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Sooner or later…

You can run on for a long time
Run on for a long time
Run on for a long time
Sooner or later God’ll cut you down
Sooner or later God’ll cut you down

Go tell that long tongue liar
Go and tell that midnight rider
Tell the rambler, the gambler, the back biter
Tell ‘em that God’s gonna cut ‘em down
Tell ‘em that God’s gonna cut ‘em down

–Johnny Cash from “God’s Gonna Cut You Down”

Johnny Cash had it right for the rambler, gambler, and the lot, and he had it right for the markets as well. Sooner or later, the truth will cut you down. For months I have been writing about the fundamentals of this economy not looking good. Whether it was PMI showing the coming margin contraction, euro-zone insanity, or the fake Chinese growth. Maybe not this week, and maybe not next, but the truth cannot be ignored. ADP employment numbers are disappointing. ISM numbers have now officially rolled over and are at levels not seen since September 2009, except then, they were heading up, and now, if we keep this trend, we’ll be in contraction territory by next month.

Not surprisingly, the precious metals have held up. Why? Because deflationary busts mean that there are no financial stores of wealth, so investors have to gravitate to the physical. Why doesn’t that lead to inflation? Well, because for storing wealth, we can only gravitate to non-perishable currencies, like gold, and perishables, like food, can’t store our wealth. Additionally, people will trade down, eat less, and eat cheaper. Farmland, on the other hand, will do better than the commodities that it grows. Regardless, of the specifics, though, one thing is clear, the equity, fixed income, and currency markets must at some point reflect the economic realities.

The pressure to Do

Investors and professional money managers are probably all-too familiar with the pressure to Do. Why aren't you DOING anything? What did you DO today? Why am I still sitting in cash? I want my money to work for me. Etc.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

The least beloved assets

While everyone is enamored with LinkedIn (I don't get it), I can't help but wonder whether there is an equal but opposite reaction to other assets. So I've been trying to glean some insight from the exercise. For starters, let's talk about the VIX.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Black Swan

I continue to think about black swans - not the movie. It's a bit of a tautology to say that we can only identify them in hindsight, that is, we can only tell that an unexpected event will happen AFTER we're caught off guard.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

More on moving averages

I've read a couple of pieces about the markets breaking below their 50 DMA, but why do people only write about it when it confirms their thinking? I'm referring, of course, to the fact that those same people aren't writing about the fact that USD index is breaking above it's 50 DMA.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

IWM and moving averages

The past few days have certainly provided some new data points. The IWM is below it's 50 DMA, and I'm sure if it finally breaks, technicians will point to this fact.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription