And over in this corner…

While the world looks at the euro dying a surprisingly slow death, I once again have to shift readers' focus.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

On the rout in energy

With an economic slowdown starting to get priced in, and deflationary pressures increasing, energy is lower.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Lots of news, but what’s important?

There is a flood of data and headlines that seems almost spiteful to anyone trying to enjoy their usually-slow August. For me, it gives a good excuse to turn away and read even slower as most of the flood is meaningless for my portfolio. That being said, some of it is not.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

More on Gold

Gold broke out, but is showing signs of being extended. Even a pullback to 1200 wouldn't break the uptrend from 2004, and it could break down even further and STILL not break the uptrend off the lows.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Gold

Just a quick reminder: gold will peak on fear, not greed, and fear hasn't peaked. No charts, no nothin'. Gold is a safe have when there's no trust in the system.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Some highlights…

The week was chock full of news, so  quick recap might be in order:

	Monday Open	Friday Close	Change
S&P 500	1343	1316	-2.01%
Gold	1545	1590	2.91%
Oil	95.59	97.58	2.08%
10 year yld	2.95	2.91	-1.36%

Our role as investors is always to look forward.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Gold and Oil

Approaching new highs in almost every currency. Euro can sustain any bids, and I'm not even sure who's bidding other than the Chinese. Why are the Chinese bidding? No clue; maybe they like losing money. Regardless, gold and even more importantly for me, the gold miners, are rising today.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Black Gold

What does it tell us when oil stays level but oil related companies go up? For starters, it tells us that the implementation vehicle we utilized (XES) was the right choice.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Gold: The unsurprising comeback

Gold was down for a week and the fear was palpable: yes, ladies and gentlemen, gold will have pullbacks; however, seen on the weekly chart, gold remains stable and strong, and not just technically.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

A Contrarian Take On Oil

60 million barrels sure sounds like a lot, so thank you world governments for releasing that into the system and alleviating consumers' burdens.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

Energy Revisited

Earlier this week, Dennis Gartman had a note out on the technicalities behind the failed OPEC meeting, where the votes were roughly split between countries willing and unwilling to boost production.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

World Growth is Slowing

World growth is slowing and that means that not all commodities are equal. Commodities have 2 opposing forces at play determining their prices. The first, is a complex, global, supply and demand equilibrium.Viewing the remainder of this article requires a Subscription

While the world looks at silver…

Osama bin Laden is dead, and while it gives me a great sense of emotional and psychological satisfaction, I also know, logically, that this is at best a temporary and symbolic victory. It doesn’t take away from it, it’s just a recognition that the same forces (geo-political, economic, social, etc.) that were at work before, are still present. And so, on cue, we turn to precious metals.

Silver is all the rage today. As margin requirements were raised and rumors about delivery failures going around the world for the umpteenth time, silver dropped 12-13% at one point before starting to recover. All that is not that interesting to me, not just because I sold my silver exposure out of fear of these kinds of manic moves, but also because I think the more interesting story is gold.

Gold’s resilience in the face of massive silver volatility is significant in that we finally see that different forces are at play for these metals. Gold holders are not looking to trade it – at least not yet. Gold holders appear to be longer term and less influenced by external influences. In fact, gold is up on the day, approaching new highs in various currencies, and looks to move higher. Simultaneously, it’s interesting to note that the miners continue to underperfor – making them more attractive on a relative basis.

Relevant ETFs: GLD, GDX, SLV

Silver down 10%

It was down even more and is even recovering as I write this – could be nothing more than a blip on low volume, could be something more. Interesting to note that gold is stable.

Meanwhile, fears of Chinese slowdown are making their way through the rumor mills.

Yen is down a bit, but Nikkei is up nicely.

More to come…

Anybody out there watching VIX?

The VIX is down 7%. Yes, that right – 7%. Am I the only one strangely attracted to assets AFTER they fall off a cliff? I just can’t seem to tear my eyes away from the dollar and volatility. Sure it can go lower. For years, I received ads for programs claiming a sharpe ratio of 12, that were just option selling programs. Picking up nickels. Then, one day – poof! The papers said it was unpredictable. The pundits called it a thousand year flood that happens once every 3 years. Etc. You know the story. So, yes, the VIX can go down to 9. Maybe even lower. But, can it stay there? Absolutely not. This is starting to be the opportunity to buy vol, through options tends to be the most direct, or even some ETF products. I’m not stepping in yet, but this is the type of opportunity I prefer than to continue to play in the silver pits.

Relevant ETFs: VXX, VXN, SLV, UUP