Portugal, and yields, and Iran - oh my! None of these are new stories.
Portugal is bigger than Greece - but we knew that. Moreover, we knew Portugal was in dire straits. We knew Germany was already hesitant to provide more assistance and would demand higher guarantees.
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I am not immune to the hunt. Yield can help you wait out a lot of volatility, and is especially important in times of questionable returns and incredibly low rates on savings. Pundits have been talking up the dividend yields of some brand name US firms such as JNJ or PG.
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Last year I started writing about the divergent forces working on oil: global slowdown vs. geopolitical unrest. So far, geopolitical unrest has been winning.
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TechCrunch reported earlier today about "a study by the British Psychological Society [that] found a link between stress levels and the number of times a person picks up their smartphone to check messages and mails. As an addict, I can completely agree with this finding.
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For months, we were following BAC as the barometer for all that was financial. BAC had it all: Countrywide waste, new consumer fees, brand name shorts, and brand name entrants (albeit into preferreds), and more. It was easy to see it become a single digit, and then watch in wonder as it broke down.
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Here's the issue: most fund managers are used to taking some time off in August, or at least in the July-August period at some point. This year, their plans were thwarted by what can only be described as PAIN. So Joe Manager didn't have his time off, and wasn't able to de-stress.
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In a nutshell, this article summarizes the problems we are facing.
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The euro is starting off 2012 weak - that's not news - Spain is having a tough time with sovereign auctions, and Greece will soon be testing the euro's exit mechanisms.
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Predictions for 2012 are rampant, so I'll stay away. Suffice it to say that I'm looking at the same themes as I was in 2011 - what asset classes, geographical regions, securities, etc.
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Laffer curve believers and non-believers can start looking at the G-7 for clues as to whether they are right. Of course, I'm sure both sides will be able to find reasons why the data proves their point.
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I'm sure a lot of managers would have wanted to include today in their 2011 performance - I know I would.
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Art has periodically made the news with ever-larger price tags and hedge fund millionaires buying up the next big photo trends. My thinking this week coincides with the end of Art Basel in Miami, which proved to be another hit. But my goal today isn't to write about art.
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I have been thinking about vested interests. It seems like everyone talks about vested interests in some way, and usually the conversation trends towards what happens when interests conflict. Here's the problem: interests always conflict.
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Paul Brodsky always has great insight into the credit markets and interest rates, along with the market in general, so it was great to receive his insight on gold.
Here are the two points I want readers to realize:
- Real interest rates (nominal rates less CPI) are negative across the majority of the largest developed and emerging economies, implying that a stable or rising gold price has positive carry.
- When valued in terms of Enterprise Value per Gold Ounce (EV/Gold), in-ground bullion may be owned for as little as $30/oz through shares in operating companies already in production (we will distribute a more in-depth analysis of this to Fund investors later in the month).
I would encourage you to read the entire piece to get a quick summary of the dynamics in the gold market.
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Currency, Fixed Income/Bonds, Strategy/Allocation | | 
January 30, 2012 1:45 pm | 
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