Following the first week news

Here are a couple of highlights that caught my eye:

• Foreclosures in Dubai? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a4TwfiSIfjdM&pos=10 What does it mean for the credit spreads that have come in so rapidly in the past couple of months?
• Silver is starting to get a lot of attention. Specifically, the fact that the Gold:Silver ratio, usually hovering in the mid-high teens is now over 60. Is silver (”the poor man’s gold”) poised to outperform gold or will the spread increase? Is there a structural shift in the ratio due to increased demand from India and China?
• Has Brazil peaked? After almost doubling last year, with huge relative inflows and being all over the news for everything from energy, soy complex, and agriculture and resources to increasing trade flow with China, to positive demographics, etc. I can’t help but think that putting new money to work here feels a bit more speculative.
• Market P/E: we’ll update this after the 4th quarter is announced, but we’re probably trading at at P/E over 20. As always, we have to ask whether bull markets start from these valuations, and I tend to think NOT.
• I have maintained my short treasuries position, but fear that it might come back in for the next short while. Suddenly 3.5-4% yield doesn’t look that bad to a lot of institutions. I’m maintaining my small position for now, but use your judgment.
• Healthcare: let’s see what gets passed. Just started Healthcare Guaranteed by Rahm Emmanuel’s brother. I’ll keep you posted if he says anything groundbreaking.

Just some thoughts to get the year going. Again, personally and for clients, we are maintaining a very defensive stance in this environment.

In light of the BLS employment report

Here’s an interesting note on the participation rate by young people in the labor force:

http://www.businessinsider.com/young-people-arent-working-anymore-2010-1

Unemployment Numbers

I just had to put in the whole statement. All BOLD highlights are mine…

Commissioner’s Statement on the Employment Situation News Release:

Statement of Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics
before the Joint Economic Committee

UNITED STATES CONGRESS

Friday, June 5, 2009

Madam Chair and Members of the Committee:

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and unemployment data that we released this morning.

Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May. Job losses had averaged 643,000 per month during the prior 6 months.

In May, the unemployment rate rose from 8.9 to 9.4 percent.

Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million, and the unemployment rate has increased by 4.5 percentage points.

Job losses continued to be widespread in May, but the rate of decline moderated in construction and several service-providing industries. Large job losses continued in the manufacturing sector (-156,000), with employment declines in nearly all component industries. Employment fell sharply in motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metals (-19,000). Since the start of the recession, manufacturing employment has decreased by 1.8 million, accounting for 3 out of 10 jobs lost during this downturn.

Construction employment declined by 59,000 in May, half the average of the previous 6 months. Job losses moderated in the private service-providing industries, with employment falling by 113,000 in May compared with an average monthly decline of 356,000 in the prior 6 months. Employment was little changed in temporary help, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality, following large declines in recent months.

Elsewhere in the service-providing sector, the health care industry added 24,000 jobs in May. This was about in line with the trend thus far in 2009.

In May, average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers in the private sector were up by 2 cents to $18.54. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 3.1 percent. From April 2008 to April 2009, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers declined by 1.2 percent.

Turning to measures from the survey of households, the unemployment rate increased from 8.9 to 9.4 percent over the month. The number of unemployed rose by 787,000 to 14.5 million.

Since the recession began, the jobless rate has increased by 4.5 percentage points, and the number of unemployed persons has grown by 7.0 million.

Among the unemployed, the number who have been out of work 27 weeks or more increased by 268,000 in May to 3.9 million.

These long-term unemployed represented 2.5 percent of the labor force, the highest proportion since 1983.

Over the month, the employment-population ratio edged down to 59.7 percent, the lowest level since October 1984. Since the recession began, the employment-population ratio has fallen by 3.0 percentage points.

Among the employed, the number of persons working part time who would prefer full-time work was little changed for the second consecutive month. At 9.1 million in May, involuntary part-time employment was 4.4 million higher than at the start of the recession.

Among those outside the labor force–that is, persons neither working nor looking for work–the number of discouraged workers was 792,000 in May, up from 400,000 a year earlier.

These individuals are not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

In summary, nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in May, compared with the average monthly decline of 643,000 for the previous 6 months. While job losses continued to be widespread, declines moderated in construction and in a number of service- providing industries. The unemployment rate rose by half a percentage point to 9.4 percent.

Goldmans Hatzius on employment numbers.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Hatzius%20Sees%20U.S.%20Unemployment%20at%208%25%20by%20End%20of%202009&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vLCZrFmdIIFo.asf

Posted by email from thehardtrade2’s posterous

In Goldman we trust?

From GOLDMAN SACHs…We have deepened our forecast of the change in payroll employment for
October to -300,000 from -250,000. … The drop in payrolls we are now
forecasting would be one of the worst month-over-month declines in the
past twenty years. … Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the
October decline in payroll employment will be the worst of this cycle.
Real activity appears to have contracted sharply in October and …
could well bleed into November and cause another large drop in payroll
employment …

Posted by email from thehardtrade2’s posterous

More job losses expected

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) — American Express Co., the largest
U.S. credit-card company by purchases, will slash 10 percent of
its workforce to cut costs amid rising defaults as consumers
squeezed by higher unemployment fail to repay their debts.

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) — A merger of General Motors Corp.,
the largest U.S. automaker, and Chrysler LLC may cost 74,000
jobs and close half of the smaller company’s plants, according
to a report from an accounting firm.

Posted by email from thehardtrade2’s posterous