This is a chart of JPY. I am not a big chartist, but I do believe that sometimes charts are able to efficiently summarize a lot of data. With that in mind, some people will see JPY heading to a top of a channel, others will see a bottom, some other pattern, what have you. As stated before, I’m currently short JPY vs. USD via YCS as well as short the Euro vs USD via EUO, so you know my bias.
(from Bloomberg, HT MacroMan)
This was just forwarded to me so I thought I’d share. It doesn’t have much predictive value, nor do I know what the conclusions are from these charts, but many of our readers have a direct interest in gold, currencies, and charts…so here goes: gold_fx
This chart from David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff might be of interest to some, especially the ones that keep sending me Richard Russell’s stuff. I’m a big fan of Russell, so this is not a criticism, and I am long gold (for a long time, small position, never added), so this is only provided as food for thought.
But I don’t like it and I don’t think it is necessarily useful for any predictive value – if anything, I’ll use it as a contra-indicator.
From the Daily Telegraph in the UK: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html
And if you’re looking for the full presentations…SG – Worst Case Debt Scenario and SG – Worst Case Debt Scenario 2.
Happy reading!
Check out the chart of DXY. I don’t gravitate towards technical analysis, but I do believe that looking at a chart can help summarize history. As I look at this months, I can’t help but feel that DXY won’t continue its downward trend. For starters, I don’t think the Euro nor Yen are looking that healthy from a monetary or fiscal perspective. Then there is the issue of everyone being short the dollar, which can’t continue. So I just shorted the yen and euro. This is not a recommendation for you to follow suit, and I’ve been wrong about the timing of currency trades before, but at these levels, I can certainly withstand some pain to see whether it plays out in the medium term.
Check out this chart from Gluskin Sheff (the same firm that puts out David Rosenberg’s missives):
Henry Blodget put these series of charts on his website. Turns out he got them from another site. And now, I’m putting it here. There’s one chart in particular that continues to draw me in, even after seeing it in one way or another for a few years. It’s the S&P 500-Nikkei overlay:
The Nikkei had multiple bull market rallies, but the end result was the same: wealth destruction, economic stagnation, and increased government debt. The scary part is that US economicsts and government officials blamed Japanese tactics for the prolonged slump: propping up bad banks (zombie banks), increasing government expenses (not investments), quantitative easing, etc. Sound familiar? Take a look at the other charts for some reality checks…
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-15-amazing-stock-market-charts-2009-10#firstremember-stocks-for-the-long-run-1
Really as a follow-up to the piece by Blodget, but looked at from a different perspective, Hussman, a favorite of mine, even if I sometimes disagree, point to the low volume levels even as the market is rising. This tends to point to fewer and fewer stocks driving the vast majority of returns – not a healthy sign.
http://hussmanfunds.com/rsi/PhoenixVolume.htm
I dont know the fundamentals of the sugar industry. But, we are currently making 25yr highs. Is this the “canary in the coal mine ” for commodity prices?
This article by Scott Hodge is from the Tax Foundation’s Tax Policy Blog:
Newly released data from the IRS clearly debunks the conventional Beltway rhetoric that the “rich” are not paying their fair share of taxes.
Indeed, the IRS data shows that in 2007—the most recent data available—the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid 40.4 percent of the total income taxes collected by the federal government. This is the highest percentage in modern history. By contrast, the top 1 percent paid 24.8 percent of the income tax burden in 1987, the year following the 1986 tax reform act.
Remarkably, the share of the tax burden borne by the top 1 percent now exceeds the share paid by the bottom 95 percent of taxpayers combined. In 2007, the bottom 95 percent paid 39.4 percent of the income tax burden. This is down from the 58 percent of the total income tax burden they paid twenty years ago.
To put this in perspective, the top 1 percent is comprised of just 1.4 million taxpayers and they pay a larger share of the income tax burden now than the bottom 134 million taxpayers combined.
Some in Washington say the tax system is still not progressive enough. However, the recent IRS data bolsters the findings of an OECD study released last year showing that the U.S.—not France or Sweden—has the most progressive income tax system among OECD nations. We rely more heavily on the top 10 percent of taxpayers than does any nation and our poor people have the lowest tax burden of those in any nation.
We are definitely overdue for some honesty in the debate over the progressivity of the nation’s tax burden before lawmakers enact any new taxes to pay for expanded health care.
From our friends at Chart of the Day:
What’s really interesting to note is how far the extremes can go…
July 24 (Bloomberg) — The world’s two biggest initial public offerings this year are from China and Brazil, reflecting the “growing power” of the so-called BRIC nations, said Barton Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP.
China State Construction Engineering Corp., the nation’s largest housing contractor, yesterday raised 16 billion yuan ($7.3 billion) in Shanghai in the largest IPO in 16 months. The Brazilian affiliate of Visa Inc., known as VisaNet, took in 8.4 billion reais ($4.3 billion) in its Sao Paulo offering in June.
“No question, it shows the growing power of the BRICs,” Barton Biggs, the former chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley, said in a telephone interview from New York. “Clearly the BRICs are the big growth areas of the world and will need a lot of foreign capital.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTrojrT34KXE
The chart below shows the ratio of EEM and SPY since 2003. It would seem that EEM needs a breather due to its STRONG rebound but in time I think we are going to find that delinking is very possible.
LET me break a couple of rules here. I am not a big fan of investing on the back of charts, all that talk of resistance levels and Japanese candlesticks leaves me cold. Nor am I a huge bull of the stockmarket at the moment.
But if you have a choice between gold and equities – well, take a look at the accompanying chart. Some gold bugs will be bullish, arguing that the price of bullion can equal the price of the S&P as it has in the past. In fact, those like Dave Ranson of Wainwright Economics who have studied the relationship, say there is an upward trend over the long term. That is to be expected - gold’s value should stay constant in real terms, but equities should rise in line with profits, in turn linked to economic growth.
The ratio seems to be driven more by equities than by gold. The peaks in the S&P/gold ratio were seen in 1929, 1965 and 1999, all the start of bear markets for stocks. Two of the lows were 1932 and 1974 (bear market bottoms for equities), while 1980 was the real peak for gold.
But a long-term investor would surely conclude from this chart that equities look relatively undervalued.
In congressional testimony this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave no indication that he planned to turn off the central bank’s liquidity spigots anytime soon.
Critics howled that the Fed is risking runaway inflation. More immediately, however, the threat of deflation seems a bigger concern — not just in the U.S., but also in economies around the world.
Last week, World Bank Chief Economist Justin Lin warned in a speech that a surge in excess capacity world-wide could lead to a global “deflationary downward spiral.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124838646671077249.html
(from Bloomberg, HT MacroMan)
Charts, Currency | Yaron Sadan | 
December 18, 2009 9:38 am | 
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