Our Electric Future

Twenty-five years ago, when I was CEO of Intel, I had an unusual
experience while visiting a customer. It was during a period of tight
availability of microprocessors, our main product. This was not an
unusual state of affairs. Supply and demand ebbed and flowed as the
computer business had its ups and downs. Sometimes we had too many
chips sitting in inventory; other times, like this one, we had too
few. My main purpose in visiting was to reassure the customer that we
were working hard to boost production and that relief was on the way.

A strange sight greeted me as I entered the lobby. A large group of
employees was waiting, standing around in a semicircle, with the CEO,
an old friend, in the center on his knees. The employees behind him
held up a sign that said, “Please feed the chip monster. He is very
hungry.”

http://www.american.com/archive/2008/july-august-magazine-contents/our-electric-future

FT…Jeffrey Sachs

A new system of development finance

November 27, 2008
by FT

By Jeffrey D. Sachs

Governments meet in Doha this weekend to review the global system of
development financing, the means by which resources flow globally to
support sustainable development. The system is broken, though the
conferees are unlikely to say so clearly.

Just as we need an overhaul of financial market regulation, we also
need an overhaul of development finance, if we are to address problems
of poverty, hunger, and climate change.

Development financing involves three main processes: development aid
for the poorest countries, those which cannot attract market-based
financing for necessary investments; direct and portfolio investments,
mainly for emerging markets and resource-rich poor countries; and
financing for global public goods, such as climate-change mitigation
and adaptation.

Aid flows are far below promised levels and are unpredictable; market
flows are heavily concentrated in a few countries, and are subject to
panicky reversals; and global public goods are disastrously
under-financed, good intentions without backing.

There is no point of accountability. When aid is promised but not
delivered, nobody really cares except the poor countries themselves.
And more often than not, the poor get blamed for some malfeasance or
another as the reason why aid hasn’t flowed.

Development ministers piously proclaim that they will honour their
commitments, such as to double aid to Africa by 2010, even as their
finance ministers are cutting their aid budgets.

What’s shocking is that the rich world has not been able to organize
itself to increase aid to Africa by a measly $25bn per year (less than
10 cents per hundred dollars of rich-world income), even as they’ve
committed at least $2.5tr in the past month for financial-sector
bailouts.

The “reformed” aid architecture has actually deprived aid of its
political support in the rich countries. Aid reformers have generally
argued for “budget support,” meaning money to the treasuries of the
poor countries, rather than “tied aid” in the form of investment
projects supplied by industrial and construction companies, or
targeted support through specialized global funds for disease control,
education, agriculture, and so forth.

Industrial enterprises in the US, Europe, and Japan that might have
sold power plants, road construction, port facilities, and the like
backed by aid funds, have lost interest and contact with development
aid. And the rich-country public does not trust general budget
support, since it doesn’t know how their money is being used.

The most successful aid in recent years has been for targeted purposes
through global funds to provide immunizations for children, or to
fight aids, TB, and malaria. The public then clearly understands how
money translates directly into lives saved. Aid can be counted in bed
nets, antiretroviral treatments, doses of measles vaccine. The
results can be counted in the dramatic reductions of deaths from
malaria, measles, polio, and other diseases now strikingly evident.
These funds have won public backing and increased financing.

The first true reform of the aid system, therefore, should reconnect
aid with measurable inputs and outputs, through targeted global funds
and programmes. International aid donors should pool their money into
global funds for primary education, food production (supplying seed
and fertilizer to peasant farmers), clean water and sanitation, family
planning and contraceptives (through the United Nations Population
Fund), nutrition (through UNICEF and the World Food Programme), and
for infrastructure. The public would see clearly how their money is
used. Projects would be monitored and audited. Successes and
failures would be transparent.

The second reform should be to “re-tie” aid, in part, by encouraging
national donor agencies to support infrastructure projects provided by
national companies.

China is doing this by the investment of billions of dollars
throughout Africa, to notable benefits on the ground throughout
Africa. Japan has a history of success of this kind of aid in
south-east Asia. With a deep recession in the high-income world,
direct financing of companies to build vitally needed roads, power
plants, port facilities, and the like in the poorest countries would
be a triple win: for development, for macroeconomic stimulus, and for
building a domestic political base for meeting aid commitments.

The goal, of course, should be to enable countries to graduate from
development aid, and to rely on market financing. Yet market
financing is heavily concentrated in a few emerging markets and
resource-rich poorer countries.

To expand the range of market financing, the key step is build the
infrastructure in the poorer countries so that market-based
investments become profitable. And financial measures are needed to
prevent dramatic reversals in private flows, as we have experienced
since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. Perhaps the key
step here is currency swap lines from the rich-country central banks
to the poorer countries, so that market panics do not sweep over the
emerging markets.

Traditional development aid (whether reformed or not) and market-based
financing do not finance global public goods, such as the heavy
investments needed for climate change mitigation and adaptation or to
protect biodiversity.

We need new forms of global financing for the research, development,
demonstration, and diffusion of sustainable energy technologies, such
as carbon capture and sequestration, and advanced technologies in
power generation. Africa has remarkable solar potential, enough for
itself and for Europe, but it requires a big scientific, engineering,
and public-private financing effort on a region-wide scale, yet
financing is not available.

Small funds such as the Global Environmental Facility have been
established for these purposes, but they are in the millions of
dollars per year category rather than the tens of billions needed.
Innovative financing is essential. We should adopt a global carbon
levy in which each country provides a few dollars per tonne of carbon
dioxide emitted to finance global investments in mitigation and
adaptation. Switzerland and Norway have recently advanced such
proposals.

An analogous small tax on global transport and on global financial
transactions can add significant and needed international funding. A
levy on airline tickets is already functioning and can be complemented
by a similar levy on international shipping.

An overhaul the international finance system is now likely. The
financial crisis has already triggered the process. There is much
talk about Bretton Woods II. The world should remember that the first
Bretton Woods agreement involved much more than financial regulation,
and looked forward to post-war reconstruction, development, and trade.

This time around we need a similarly expansive vision, in which a new
system of development finance addresses the great challenges of
sustainable development: poverty alleviation, disease control, climate
change, and well-functioning global financial markets that serve all
countries, rich and poor.

Jeffrey D. Sachs is the director of the Earth Institute, Quetelet
professor of sustainable development, and professor of health policy
and management at Columbia University

Ultra Euro – ULE

Objective

ProShares Ultra Euro seeks daily investment results, before fees and
expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the U.S. Dollar price of the
Euro.

EC pushes $256B in spending to battle crunch

Content-Disposition: inline

BRUSSELS, Belgium (AP) — The European Commission wants EU
governments to jointly combat the growing economic slowdown with a
$256.22 billion stimulus plan to boost growth and confidence
among consumers and businesses.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso says governments must spend more.

In a two-year European Economic Recovery Plan, made public Wednesday,
it calls on the 27 EU governments to spend more to halt the
accelerating economic slowdown that has pushed some European nations
into recession.

The proposed stimulus plan would represent 1.5 percent of EU gross domestic product. Around $220 billion would come from national governments and the rest from EU funds and the bloc’s lending arm, the European Investment Bank.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/11/26/eu.bailout.billions.recession.ap/index.html

Societe Generale SA strategist James Montier More Bullish on Stocks, Bonds

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — Societe Generale SA strategist James Montier
said he’s never been so bullish after the financial crisis dragged
down prices for stocks, corporate bonds and inflation-protected
government debt.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is “distinctly cheap” because it
trades for 15.4 times the 10-year moving average of its companies’
profits, compared with an average of 18 for the U.S. market since
1881, London-based Montier wrote in a research note today. Fifteen
U.S. stocks pass his test for “deep value,” while a tenth of shares in
Europe and a fifth in Asia qualify.

“This is a value investor’s version of heaven,” wrote Montier,
SocGen’s global equity strategist. “From a bottom-up perspective, the
equity market is offering some excellent companies at truly bargain
prices for those with the fortitude to shut their eyes, or at least
switch off their screens and buy.”

Carlos Slim’s Inbursa Bank Acquires Citigroup Shares in Mexico

By William Freebairn

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — The bank controlled by Carlos Slim Helu, the
Mexican billionaire ranked as one of the world’s richest men, paid
about $134 million to buy 26 million Mexico- traded shares of
Citigroup Inc. over the past five trading days.

Grupo Financiero Inbursa SA’s brokerage unit purchased the Citigroup
stake in a series of trades from Nov. 19 through today, according to
exchange records, which don’t specify whether the transactions were on
behalf of clients or for the bank’s account. An Inbursa spokesman said
the firm had no comment on the trades. The 26 million shares amount to
less than 1 percent of the Citigroup’s stock.

Inbursa, based in Mexico City, bought 9.63 million shares on Nov. 20
as Citigroup fell 26 percent in New York to $4.71, sinking below $5
for the first time since 1994 on speculation the company might be
forced to sell itself or split up. The stock rebounded 58 percent
yesterday after the U.S. government announced a rescue plan, injecting
$20 billion of cash and shielding the company from losses on some
toxic assets.

Inbursa Bank Acquires Citigroup Shares in Mexico

November, Busiest Month Ever

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — The International Monetary Fund this month lent
more money to cash-strapped governments than it has in the past five
years combined.

The IMF agreed this month to $41.8 billion in loans, approving $16.4
billion for Ukraine, $15.7 billion for Hungary, $2.1 billion for
Iceland and $7.6 billion for Pakistan. Financing is in the works for
Serbia, Turkey, Belarus and Latvia, turning eastern Europe into a
regional ward of the IMF the way Southeast Asia was a decade ago.

Facing a decline in relevance and revenue just a year ago, the IMF
under Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn is getting a lift from
the global credit crisis. Demand for its loans is rising in nations
suffering from weaker export sales, banking industry turmoil and
deteriorating investor confidence in the developing world.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSCYZI5nYCsk&refer=home

N.J. Is Drawing Heat for Hedge-Fund Foray

New Jersey’s pension fund, already in the spotlight thanks to losing
investments this year in large banks, is under fire again, this time
over a series of controversial hedge-fund investments that initially
swept below the public radar.

New Jersey made the investments last month, to funds run by BlackRock
Inc., Canyon Capital Advisors LLC and GoldenTree Asset Management LP,
as they were “facing the equivalent of margin calls,” William Clark,
director of the New Jersey Division of Investment, said in an
interview Monday.

In effect, the funds, which had borrowed money for investments, either
faced or anticipated facing demands from lenders for cash as the value
of those investments fell.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122757461397055069.html

Harvard feeling the pain….

“While we can hope that markets will improve, we need to be prepared
to absorb unprecedented endowment losses and plan for a period of
greater financial constraint.”

– Drew Faust, Harvard University President

Putin to Hold TV Call-In Show Next Week, May Signal Comeback

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will
hold a live call-in show on national television next week, in what
analysts say may signal the start of his campaign to regain the
presidency.

The broadcast will be held “in the first week of December,” Putin’s
spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said by phone today. The exact date will be
announced later this week, he said.

State news channel Vesti will broadcast the event on Dec. 4,
Internet-based newspaper gazeta.ru reported, citing the channel’s
press service and unidentified officials in Putin’s political party,
United Russia.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=almi_GBAkMqc&refer=home

Marc Faber….Buy GOLD

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Marc/Faber/SaysGlobalEconomyImploding/Favors/Gold&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vhU1YsklcydQ.asf

Jim Rogers interview..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aP5uFzsclsDQ

The Car of the Future — but at What Cost? Hybrid Vehicles Are Popular, but Making Them Profitable Is a Challenge

By Steven Mufson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Many members of Congress believe they know what the car company of the future should look like.

“A business model based on gas — a gas-guzzling past — is
unacceptable,” Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said last week. “We
need a business model based on cars of the future, and we already know
what that future is: the plug-in hybrid electric car.”

But the car company Schumer and other lawmakers envision for the
future could turn out to be a money-losing operation, not part of a
“sustainable U.S. auto industry” that President-elect Barack Obama and
most members of Congress say they want to create.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/24/AR2008112403211_pf.html

Brazilian Farm Credit Dries Up, Forces Growers to Reduce Crops

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — Coffee farmer Joao Carlos Terra says his trees
will yield about a third less than planned next year because he can’t
get a big enough loan to buy fertilizer and pesticide as the global
credit crunch bites in Brazil.

Terra received only 10,000 reais ($4,300) of the 35,000- real loan he
needed this month, so trees that should yield 250 bags of coffee next
season will likely produce just 170, he said. Terra is planning to
pick up extra work as a farmhand to support his wife and two sons.

“It’s kind of impossible to keep going like this,” said Terra, 29, who
grows arabica coffee on about 10 hectares (25 acres) in Bom Jesus da
Penha, a city in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. “I don’t know
what will happen.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHwqWQnFqZLE&refer=home

U.S. Pledges Top $7.7 Trillion to Ease Frozen Credit

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. government is prepared to provide
more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after
guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday. The
pledges, amounting to half the value of everything produced in the
nation last year, are intended to rescue the financial system after
the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.

The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $3.18 trillion already
tapped by financial institutions in the biggest response to an
economic emergency since the New Deal of the 1930s, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. The commitment dwarfs the plan approved by
lawmakers, the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset
Relief Program. Federal Reserve lending last week was 1,900 times the
weekly average for the three years before the crisis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aDqw8_eMzrhU